Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
